Article 11216

Title of the article

MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF THE TECHNOLOGY-RELATED RISK IN COMPLEX TECHNICAL SYSTEMS AT GAMMA DISTRIBUTION OF PROBABILITIES OF INITIAL EVENTS AND DAMAGES

Authors

Ostreykovskiy Vladislav Alekseevich, doctor of technical sciences, professor, sub-department of computer science, Surgut State University (628412, 1 Lenin street, Surgut, Russia), ova@ivt.surgu.ru
Pavlov Aleksey Sergeevich, postgraduate student, Obninsk Institute for Nuclear Power Engineering – branch of National Research Nuclear University «MEPhI» (Moscow Engineering Physics Institute) (249040, 1 Studgorodok, Obninsk, Russia), a-s-pavlov@mail.ru
Pogorelovskij Mihail Aleksandrovich, postgraduate student, Surgut State University (628412, 1 Lenin street, Surgut, Russia), pogorelovksy_ma@surgu.ru

Index UDK

519.87

Abstract

The article deals with method of measuring anthropogenic ricks. New analytical relations for function and density of distribution of risk are received: with independent and dependent random variable of probability of initial events and damages in relation to various heper-Erlang distribution laws. Analytical dependence for assessment of technical risk indicators for independent random variables the probability of initiating events and the damage. Mathematical modeling of the functions of technical risk density distribution. Analytical dependences for evaluation of technical risk indicators in the dependent random variables probability of initiating events and the damage. The results of mathematical modeling of functions of technical risk density distribution for different forms depending on the likelihood ofdamage to the original event.

Key words

risk, probability, damage, mathematical model, distribution function, density of distribution, distribution law.

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Дата создания: 27.09.2016 14:34
Дата обновления: 29.09.2016 15:03